Ảnh hưởng của enso đến các cực trị nhiệt độ và lượng mưa ở Việt Nam và khả năng dự báo

Abstract

In this paper, the author introduces study results of the effect of ENSO on the distribution of the frequency of occurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes in different seasons in Viet Nam. The frequency anomalies of maximum and minimum temperatures and daily maximum pre- cipitation in the ENSO phase seasons above (below) the non-ENSO seasons# 90th and 95th (5th and 10th) percentiles for temperature and above the non-ENSO seasons# 75th and 90th percentiles for precipitation are calculated. The results show that El Nino’s effect increases the frequency of maximum temperature extremes while La Nina’s effect decreases it. Regarding minimum temperature, the effect of El Nino decreases the frequency of occurrence of minimum temperature extremes in both summer and winter. Conversely, La Nina’ effect increases it in winter, but decreases it in summer in almost areas of Viet Nam. Regarding extreme daily precipitation, the frequency of the occurrence of daily maximum precipitation during El Nino phase seasons is decreased. During La Nina phase seasons, in many regions, especially in the North, the frequency of daily maximum precipitation is decreased, but in the South, the frequency of daily maximum precipitation is greater than in normal seasons, especially at the 90th percentile.